Recognizing Arnaud Bergauzy’s expertise in corporate risk management and insurance, this exclusive insight explores the growing uninsurability of natural catastrophes, the financial impact on businesses, and the urgent need for companies to rethink risk mitigation strategies in the face of climate change.
Rethinking Risk Management In A Changing Climate
If some still remain skeptical about the impact of Climate Change on our planet, no one can deny the dramatic consequences of the multiplication of natural events, whether in human losses but also in financial costs.
The latest, Cyclone Chido in Mayotte in December, caused, according to the Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), damage (covered by insurance) estimated between 750 and 880 million dollars. But this amount is far from other natural disasters occurring this year 2024 and in particular in the United States, which are the most affected this year, with a total cost of $120 billion just for the winter storms of January and the hurricane. Milton in October according to the NGO Christian Aid.
The Asian continent also paid a heavy price in 2024, in particular because of the floods in China last June and July as well as Typhoon Yagi in September for a total cost of $28.2 billion. Europe, for its part, was less impacted in 2024 even if everyone remembers the dramatic floods in Valencia in Spain last October, the cost of which alone is estimated at $4.2 billion.
Thus, if we take the 10 largest natural disasters occurring in 2024, we reach the amount of $229 billion, or almost 3 times more than in 2018.
Faced with an increase in the frequency but also the intensity of natural disasters which significantly impact their loss ratio, insurers have drastically revised in recent years the conditions for renewing their clients' PDBI insurance contracts. And this hard market phenomenon observed in 2019 is not about to stop, quite the contrary, if we refer to the scenarios, even the most optimistic, of the IPCC.
This permanent tension imposed by insurers is already having dramatic consequences on all of our lives. Thus, the uninsurability of certain risks, certain sites or certain activities is now a terrifying reality. Take the example of Australia. Hit hard by a series of natural disasters (mega-droughts, record floods, monster fires, etc.) in recent years, this country is facing an “insurability crisis” according to the Australian NGO Climate Council. The price of insurance for properties in risk areas will explode in the coming years, becoming inaccessible for a large part of the population. In total, one in 25 Australian households could become uninsurable by 2030 according to these same experts. And this ratio rises to one in 10 in certain particularly threatened regions such as Port Adelaide or the Gold Coast.
In France, it is the local authorities which are now uninsurable. In a few years, relations between local authorities and the insurance world have deteriorated: sudden terminations, sometimes dizzying increases in premiums and deductibles, lack of response to calls for tenders... However, without insurance, that's all a part of the functioning of local authorities which is undermined and local public service missions, however essential to social life, which can no longer be ensured such as nurseries, schools, social centers, etc.
Companies must take the full measure of the radicalization of this insurance situation and think in a completely disruptive way about how to protect their assets and their activity.
In this increasingly tense context, companies, whatever their size, must take the full measure of the radicalization of this insurance situation and think in a completely disruptive way about how to protect their assets and their activity. If we want the insurance model to survive for the next 20 years, companies must realize today that a significant increase in risk retention is inevitable and that the transfer of risk to insurance must concern exclusively ultra-intensity losses.
This new way of mitigating risks is not without consequences on the business model of companies which will have to rethink their economic model in the face of the occurrence of major climatic events. This means in particular adapting their assets located in areas subject to major climatic events and considering either investing, sometimes massively, in the adaptation of certain sites, or conversely disinvesting in certain sites if they are too exposed.
To do this, the Risk & Insurance Manager must above all rely on a EXCOM that is aware of this change and resolutely committed to a long-term economic transition. Without this support, it will be impossible to lead any strong structural change. Then, the Risk & Insurance Manager will have to map all its sites according to their exposure to natural events (drought, wildfires, floods, extreme temperatures, etc.) to date but also in the long term (we generally base ourselves on the IPCC scenarios in 2050 ). For this, players like Swiss Re or Moody’s are renowned for the rigor of their models. Finally, the Risk & Insurance Manager will have to set up a Task Force with a dedicated team to 1/ select the most strategic sites, 2/ reflect on the means to be implemented to adapt them to the evolution of these climate risks and 3 / monitor their implementation.
It is crucial to involve PDBI insurers in long-term projects, even those beyond the LTA, to demonstrate the company’s commitment to managing climate risks sustainably.
This “good father” management approach helps maintain a constructive relationship with insurers.
Additionally, alternative risk transfer solutions, such as captive reinsurance, cat bonds, or parametric insurance, should be accessible to more companies, not just the wealthiest. While these options require significant investment, they can limit both the company’s and PDBI insurers’ financial exposure, especially in climate risk management. More affordable solutions, such as captive compartmentalization, are available. Risk & Insurance Managers should collaborate with brokers to find alternatives suited to their company’s size and needs.
Ultimately, companies must recognize that increasing natural events and their financial impact threaten the current PDBI insurance model. Without a shift in approach and investment in sustainable practices, companies risk uninsurability. The climate emergency demands action—it's time to wake up.
